IMPORTANT NOTE:
Recent work by Simpson et al. (2024) suggests that the CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs) may systematically misrepresent historically observed humidity trends in arid and semi-arid regions. This raises the possibility that the GCMs might not produce correct future humidity trends. The LOCA downscaling process inherits any humidity trend errors that the GCMs might produce, which could impact trends in variables that depend on humidity, such as evaporative demand, wet-bulb temperatures, heat indices, and air-density altitude, among others. Therefore, the LOCA humidity trends should be considered an estimation, especially in arid and semi-arid regions, and only used with an understanding of the issues raised by Simspon et al. and in conjunction with expert engagement.
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